Subscriptions, Survival Cohorts & Unit Economics
Tracks real Cycle-2+ renewal survival by starter bundle and lets you confirm exact landed SKU COGS to recompute CM1 & `eCM365`.
Observed Subscription Cohorts by Starter SKU
| Starter SKU | Total Subs | 30d+ Matured | Cycle 2 Retained | Observed C2 Rate | Avg Cycle | Avg Realized CM1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISU-OG | 733 | 71 | 23 | 32.4% | 1.03 | $18.67 |
Interval-Aware Weibull eCM-365 Credible Intervals (p10 / Mean / p90)
Separates 30-day monthly subscribers (up to 12 cycles/yr) from 90-day quarterly cohorts (4 cycles/yr), clamping refunded/cancelled orders strictly to Day-1 CM1.
| Starter SKU | Billing Cadence | Active First Orders | Avg Day-1 CM1 | p10 (Conservative) | Expected eCM-365 | p90 (Upside) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISU-OG | 90d | 706 | $18.72 | $44.92 | $56.51 | $72.16 |
Monthly Acquisition Cohort LTV Matrix (Cumulative / Customer)
Compares Month-0 Day-1 payback against Month-1, Month-2, and Month-3+ realized Net Sales & CM1 per acquired customer.
| Cohort Month | Customers | Sub Start % | M0 Net / CM1 | M1 Cum Net / CM1 | M2 Cum Net / CM1 | M3+ Cum Net / CM1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11 | 335 | 99.1% | $53.09 / $21.11 | $53.09 / $21.11 | $53.09 / $21.11 | $53.09 / $21.11 |
| 2026-10 | 367 | 98.4% | $46.48 / $15.72 | $49.28 / $17.63 | $49.28 / $17.63 | $49.28 / $17.63 |
| 2026-09 | 31 | 90.0% | $34.57 / $8.51 | $45.64 / $15.53 | $47.22 / $16.55 | $47.22 / $16.55 |
| 2026-08 | 1 | 0.0% | $35.00 / $17.31 | $35.00 / $17.31 | $74.94 / $33.46 | $74.94 / $33.46 |
Interactive SKU COGS Editor
Active assumptions: base_pick_pack_usd=2.6500 · default_unknown_sku_cogs_pct=0.2200 · payment_fee_fixed=0.3000 · payment_fee_pct=0.0290 · sample_shipping_usd=4.5000 · shipping_per_order_usd=5.4000
| SKU | Title | Role | Unit COGS ($) | Packaging ($) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISU-FRO | Premium Handheld Frother (Standalone) | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-KIT-30-OG | Misu Gut Health Blend - 1 Pouch (30d) | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-KIT-3-MONTHLY-OG | Misu Gut Health Blend - Buy 2 Get 1 Free (3 Pouches) | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-KIT-5-MONTHLY-OG | Misu Gut Health Blend - Buy 3 Get 2 Free (5 Pouches) | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-KIT-90-OG | Misu Gut Health Blend - 90-Day Supply | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-OG | Misu Gut Health Blend - Single Refill Pouch | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-PKG-BOX | Misu Outer Box - Packaging Component | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-PKG-PAD | Misu Inner Pad - Packaging Component | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-REFILL-3-OG | Misu Original Refill - 3 Pouches | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-SPN | Walnut Measuring Scoop (Standalone) | Core / Pack | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-GIFT-FRO-DISPLAY | Premium Handheld Frother (Display Gift — Inside Kit) | Welcome Gift | Confirmed | ||
| MISU-GIFT-SPN-DISPLAY | Walnut Measuring Scoop (Display Gift — Inside Kit) | Welcome Gift | Confirmed |