Triangulated Attribution & Funnels
Glass-box ClickHouse attribution separating Demand Creation vs. Capture, Cash vs. Accrual accounting, and Presell Landing Pages.
Ledger Reconciliation: ClickHouse $37,413.04 vs Postgres $37,413.04 (Drift $0.00)
Channel Attribution (markov_chain / demand_creation)
| Channel | Tier | Ad Spend | Attr. Orders | Sub Take-Rate | Net Sales | Platform Rev | CM1 | CM1 ROAS | eCM365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| meta | creation | $26,469.32 | 723.9 | 95.2% | $35,314.60 | $33,866.28 | $13,225.60 | 0.50x | $38,641.44 |
| capture | — | 11.5 | 94.6% | $626.76 | — | $255.36 | — | $732.90 | |
| direct | capture | — | 6.6 | 94.2% | $413.70 | — | $185.46 | — | $413.38 |
| organic_search | capture | — | 7.0 | 85.7% | $382.10 | — | $147.76 | — | $322.90 |
| google_paid_search | creation | — | 5.0 | 80.0% | $288.92 | — | $126.90 | — | $303.14 |
| organic_social | creation | — | 5.1 | 80.3% | $192.76 | — | $60.72 | — | $151.24 |
| unattributed_direct | capture | — | 3.0 | 33.3% | $109.93 | — | $46.71 | — | $90.77 |
| referral | creation | — | 2.0 | 50.1% | $84.27 | — | $41.81 | — | $85.45 |
| google_brand_search | capture | $349.83 | 0.0 | 0.0% | $0.00 | $209.94 | $0.00 | 0.00x | $0.00 |
| youtube | creation | $604.93 | 0.0 | 0.0% | $0.00 | $374.89 | $0.00 | 0.00x | $0.00 |
Landing Page & Presell Funnel Matrix
Combines URL path + Mailroom `landing_page` (`daily-roast`, etc.)
| Landing Page | Orders | Net Sales | CM1 | eCM365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=daily-roast | 246.2 | $12,658.49 | $4,863.62 | $14,589.41 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=weight-loss | 230.7 | $10,585.35 | $3,572.50 | $11,453.84 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription | 118.3 | $5,509.85 | $2,155.08 | $4,795.68 |
| /products/misu-original?view=daily-roast | 78.1 | $4,163.97 | $1,732.97 | $5,130.53 |
| / | 24.7 | $1,318.73 | $551.13 | $1,311.17 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=doctor-regularity | 15.0 | $663.86 | $229.50 | $713.56 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=morning-cup | 8.5 | $389.99 | $147.33 | $477.16 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=cholesterol | 5.0 | $326.87 | $179.16 | $267.28 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=bloating | 6.0 | $258.93 | $105.85 | $238.03 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=classic-grain | 6.0 | $244.93 | $82.03 | $346.39 |
| /products/misu-original?view=weight-loss | 3.0 | $204.94 | $88.97 | $221.15 |
| /pages/our-story?view=weight-loss | 2.4 | $134.29 | $55.27 | $161.85 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=knee-pain | 2.0 | $104.97 | $41.23 | $85.29 |
| /products/misu-starter-subscription?view=gut-cleanup | 1.0 | $99.97 | $44.88 | $88.94 |
| /products/misu-original?view=morning-cup | 2.1 | $87.97 | $31.02 | $123.33 |
Triangulated Calibration (MTA + PPS + MMM)
Compares stitched Markov CM1 against survey/MMM incremental lift.
| Channel | MTA CM1 | MMM CM1 | Multiplier | mROAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| meta | $12,270.88 | $18,075.06 | 1.47x | 0.36x |
| youtube | $0.00 | $963.14 | 1.00x | 0.29x |
| $236.18 | $236.18 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend | |
| direct | $173.73 | $173.73 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| organic_search | $147.76 | $147.76 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| google_paid_search | $95.71 | $95.71 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| organic_social | $28.14 | $28.14 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| unattributed_direct | $13.25 | $13.25 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| referral | $10.57 | $10.57 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
| google_brand_search | $0.00 | $0.00 | 1.00x | Need Ad Spend |
Bayesian MMM 80% Credible Intervals & Marginal ROAS Budget Equalizer
Allocates marginal daily ad dollars along each channel’s Hill saturation curve to equalize marginal CM1 ROAS.
| Channel | Method | Incremental CM1 | 80% Credible Interval | Marginal ROAS | Rec. Daily Budget | Budget Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| meta | ridge_hill | $18,075.06 | [$11,705.94, $20,235.23] | 0.36x | $686.43/d | -2.3% |
| youtube | ridge_hill | $963.14 | [$0.00, $3,576.45] | 0.29x | $40.88/d | +100.0% |
| triangulated_prior | $236.18 | [$193.66, $278.69] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% | |
| direct | triangulated_prior | $173.73 | [$142.46, $205.00] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| organic_search | triangulated_prior | $147.76 | [$121.16, $174.36] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| google_paid_search | triangulated_prior | $95.71 | [$78.48, $112.94] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| organic_social | triangulated_prior | $28.14 | [$23.07, $33.20] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| unattributed_direct | triangulated_prior | $13.25 | [$10.87, $15.63] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| referral | triangulated_prior | $10.57 | [$8.66, $12.47] | 0.00x | $0.00/d | +0.0% |
| google_brand_search | ridge_hill | $0.00 | [$0.00, $2,464.96] | 0.00x | $2.70/d | -60.0% |
Matched-Market US State Geo-Lift Experiment Lab
Synthetic-control holdout cells computed from Misu’s daily US state revenue matrix to measure causal lift independent of platform attribution.
Meta Prospecting US Geo-Holdout (Auto-Matched)
designedChannel: meta • Pre-Period Fit R² = 0.9890 • Holdout MAPE 37.8%
Holdout States (3): FL, MD, GA
Synthetic Control Pool (5 states): NC, SC, MI, CA, NY